UK Ad Spend Forecast Points to Festive Growth for OOH and Retail Media
2026-10-29 · via DailyDOOH
The Advertising Association and WARC have published a new UK advertising expenditure forecast showing continued growth for out of home and retail media through the rest of 2026 and into 2027, figures that matter directly to anyone selling or operating digital screens for ad revenue.
According to the report, total UK advertising investment is forecast to hit £14.0bn in Q4 2026, up 8.2% year-on-year and a £1.06bn increase on the same period last year. Within that festive quarter forecast, out of home is projected to grow 7.5%, with digital out of home singled out as growing faster still, at 9.5%. Retail media is forecast to grow 16.2% over the festive period, and addressable TV 15.1%.
The report also confirms Q2 2026 results already in the books: total ad investment rose 11.0% year-on-year to £12.3bn. Retail media took an 8.4% share of all UK ad spend in that quarter and grew 31.2% year-on-year, which the Advertising Association says reflects the channel opening up more touchpoints along the consumer journey. Out of home grew 12.7% in the same quarter.
For full-year 2026, the Advertising Association and WARC now forecast total UK ad spend of £51.3bn, a 9.9% increase on 2025 and an upward revision of 1.8 percentage points from their July 2026 forecast. Retail media is expected to lead full-year growth at 23.0%, ahead of social media at 20.7% and addressable TV at 14.7%. Out of home is forecast to grow 10.8% for the full year. Looking further out, 2027 total spend is projected to reach £54.7bn, a 6.5% rise, with retail media again among the top three growth drivers at 13.0%.
Stephen Woodford, chief executive of the Advertising Association, said the festive quarter figures underline the role advertising plays in supporting business growth during what he called the golden quarter. Suzy Young, head of media data at WARC, attributed part of the Q2 2026 strength to the FIFA World Cup and to AI-driven improvements in ad targeting, which she said is helping offset weaker consumer confidence tied to geopolitical conditions.
For digital signage operators, the headline number to watch is the gap between digital out of home's 9.5% festive growth and the broader out of home category's 7.5%, which suggests advertisers continue to shift spend toward addressable and measurable formats within the OOH mix. The report does not break out spend by specific OOH subsegments such as retail networks, transit, or roadside beyond the digital/non-digital split, so operators looking for venue-level detail will need to look elsewhere. The forecast also does not say how much of the retail media growth is flowing through in-store screens versus online retail media placements, a distinction that matters for anyone trying to size the opportunity in physical retail.
The announcement in full
Reproduced from DailyDOOH for reference. Digital Signage Magazine did not write the text below.
The latest Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report forecasts UK advertising investment will reach GBP 14.0bn in Q4 2026, up 8.2% year-on-year, as advertising continues to support economic growth in the UK.
Stephen Woodford , Chief Executive, Advertising Association, told us “As we approach the festive season, UK advertising continues to demonstrate strong growth momentum, with Q4 investment forecast to rise 8.2% year-on-year to £14.0bn. This represents a £1.06bn boost compared to the same period in 2025, underlining the vital role advertising plays across all channels and media formats in supporting business growth during the golden quarter and beyond.”
The report also confirms strong performance in the second quarter of 2026, with advertising investment rising by 11.0% year-on-year to £12.3bn. Looking ahead, total advertising expenditure for 2026 is now forecast to reach £51.3bn, a 9.9% increase on the previous year. A further 6.5% rise is projected for 2027, taking total spend to £54.7bn.
The new figures reveal strong momentum in Q2 2026 across the UK advertising landscape, with total ad investment rising 11.0% to £12.3bn.
Retail media commanded an 8.4% share of total advertising investment, growing 31.2% year-on-year, as the channel continued to open up more touchpoints along the consumer journey. Cinema also posted strong growth of 24.5% year-on-year in Q2 2026, due to major releases including The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, and Toy Story 5.
Double-digit growth was recorded across several other channels, including social media (22.2%), out of home (12.7%) and addressable TV (12.7%). Smaller but still positive gains were seen for search (9.3%), direct mail (4.5%), online classified (4.4%), digital radio (3.2%) and TV (2.6%).
Advertising investment across the festive period is set to reach £14.0bn, a £1.06bn boost on last year, as adspend climbs by 8.2% year-on-year.
Advertising continues to play a vital role in supporting the UK economy, as festive campaigns rollout across a range of channels. Social media is projected to rise 18.5% year-on-year, alongside retail media (16.2%) and addressable TV (15.1%). Cinema (8.6%) and search (7.8%) are both set to continue to see growth throughout the festive period.
Increased high-street footfall during the golden quarter is set to benefit out of home (OOH), forecast to grow 7.5%, with digital OOH up 9.5%. Further gains are anticipated for digital radio (4.7%), direct mail (1.8%), total TV (1.6%) and online classified (1.6%).
Suzy Young , Head of Media Data, WARC, said: “Q2 2026 ad investment remained strong despite geopolitical headwinds and weak consumer confidence linked to the Middle East conflict. Growth was boosted by the FIFA World Cup, but increasingly reflects AI investment, as platforms enhance targeting while both new AI-native companies and established tech firms compete for customers – a dynamic that improves efficiency while generating new demand, helping offset weaker sentiment. This AI-driven boost is especially pronounced in the UK, given the maturity of its digital advertising market.”
Advertising investment growth is expected to moderate in the second half of 2026 and further into 2027, rising by 9.9% overall this year and 6.5% next year.
Full-year UK advertising investment for 2026 is forecast to reach £51.3bn, an upward revision of 1.8 percentage points on the July 2026 forecast. Growth will be led by retail media (23.0%), social media (20.7%) and addressable TV (14.7%), with further gains expected across out of home (10.8%), search (9.1%), digital radio (9.1%), cinema (6.9%), direct mail (4.1%), and total TV (0.9%).
Looking ahead to 2027, total advertising investment is projected to reach £54.7bn. Key growth drivers include social media (13.3%), retail media (13.0%) and addressable TV (10.9%), alongside continued gains in search (6.6%), digital radio (4.2%), digital OOH (4.3%), and TV (1.7%).
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