IAB Raises 2026 US Ad Forecast, Trims DOOH Growth Estimate to 7%
2026-09-28 · via invidis
The Interactive Advertising Bureau has raised its overall 2026 US advertising growth forecast to 12.3 percent, up from the 9.5 percent it projected in January, while trimming its digital out-of-home growth estimate slightly to 7 percent from an earlier 7.4 percent forecast.
For anyone selling or buying screen time, the headline number that matters is the 7 percent figure. It still puts DOOH well ahead of linear television, which the IAB expects to decline 1.5 percent in 2026, but it confirms DOOH remains a mid-tier channel rather than a growth leader within digital advertising overall.
According to the IAB, social media is forecast to grow fastest at 16.5 percent, followed by connected TV at 15.6 percent and commerce media at 13.6 percent. Digital video excluding connected TV is projected to grow 9.4 percent, podcasts 8.7 percent and paid search 8.1 percent. DOOH sits below all of these in the ranking, a pattern that has held in prior IAB forecasts as well.
The IAB attributes the upgraded overall outlook to a stronger-than-expected first half of 2026, helped by major events including the Winter Olympics and the FIFA World Cup, along with buyers expressing fewer concerns about economic headwinds than they did in January. The findings come from a survey of more than 200 brand and agency decision-makers, published as part of the IAB's 2026 Outlook Study: September Update, released September 10.
What buyers are prioritizing
Customer acquisition remains the top media investment goal, cited by 63 percent of respondents, up nine percentage points since January. Building brand equity rose six points to 43 percent, while repeat purchases held steady at 24 percent. The release does not break out how these priorities specifically apply to DOOH buying decisions.
The study also flags a shift buyers are grappling with: how AI is changing product discovery. Adapting to AI-driven search and consumer behavior was named the top media investment challenge by 44 percent of respondents, and 38 percent cited concerns about low-quality AI-generated content. More than three-quarters of respondents said they are increasing focus on optimizing content for AI-generated answers, and 86 percent said they have changed or expect to change how they measure media performance because of conversational AI and AI agents over the next 12 months, including tracking brand visibility within AI tools and monitoring referral traffic.
The report does not say how these AI-related measurement shifts intersect with DOOH specifically, an area where attribution has historically been harder to prove than in search or social. For operators and network owners, the takeaway is that DOOH keeps growing, just not as fast as the channels increasingly capturing marketing budgets and attention.
The announcement in full
Reproduced from invidis for reference. Digital Signage Magazine did not write the text below.
A stronger-than-expected first half has prompted the Interactive Advertising Bureau to raise its US advertising growth forecast for 2026. The IAB expects DooH spending to increase 7 percent, although its latest projection is slightly lower than its January estimate.
The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) now expects US advertising spending to grow 12.3 percent in 2026, up from the 9.5 percent increase it projected in January.
The revised outlook follows a stronger-than-expected first half supported by major events including the Winter Olympics and Fifa World Cup. Advertising buyers also expressed fewer concerns about economic headwinds than they did at the beginning of the year.
The IAB projects a 7 percent increase in DooH spending, slightly below its January forecast of 7.4 percent and expects DooH to trail several other digital channels but remain well ahead of linear television, which it forecasts will decline 1.5 percent.
Social media is forecast to record the strongest increase at 16.5 percent, followed by connected TV at 15.6 percent and commerce media at 13.6%. The outlook calls for digital video excluding connected TV to grow 9.4%, podcasts by 8.7% and paid search by 8.1%.
The findings are based on responses from more than 200 brand and agency advertising decision-makers.
Customer acquisition remains marketers’ leading media investment goal and was selected by 63 percent of respondents, an increase of nine percentage points since January. Building brand equity rose six points to 43 percent, while repeat purchases remained nearly unchanged at 24 percent.
The study also points to growing concern about how artificial intelligence is changing product discovery. Adapting to evolving consumer behavior, including AI-driven search, was identified as the leading media investment challenge by 44 percent of buyers. Another 38 percent cited concerns about low-quality AI-generated content.
More than 75% of respondents said they were increasing their focus on optimizing content for answers generated by AI platforms. Meanwhile, 86% have changed or expect to change how they measure media performance because of conversational AI and AI agents during the next 12 months.
Those measurement changes include tracking brand visibility and citations within AI tools, monitoring referral traffic and using third-party AI discovery analysis platforms.
The IAB’s updated forecast was released Sept. 10 as part of its 2026 Outlook Study: September Update .